Coronavirus impact

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Coronavirus impact

Here in Germany we are awaiting the big run from Italy passing over Austria. Hope Austria's customs are doing their job well. So far about 18 infections, all cleared out so far.
There are no reports yet in our country (the Netherlands). So nothing really happening here yet.
Not sure if this is a good sign, cuz it makes me wonder how prepared are we..?

I'm definitly thinking of building up a storage of spare food. And if I hear anything near me I'm not leaving the house and working from home only (long live VPN, VoIP, Skype for Business (O365) in our enterprise).
In my country (Slovenia) there are currently no infections. I’ve just heard that one faculty cancelled their lectures for “just in case”, but no official instructions so far.

Like Rusty, also some people in our country are buying stuff to fill their storages, but I don’t think this is really necessary at this stage. Small nation, even smaller… 😀

But ok, we got infos, our neighbors Italy and Austria got that virus too. In Italy 12 deaths already.

As long as our NAS devices are ok. Antivirus up and running, on router Threat prevention… 😜
It’s impossible to check all cars crossing borders, even during ski weeks in Europe, when tons of people are moving across Alps. When they have break stop in petrol station, restaurants, ... It's geometric progression + Viruses are unpredictable creatures with specific mutation abilities. It’s more complicated now. I hope for better scenario.

San Francisco declares state of emergency, then GDC 2020 will be possible empty, sh.t. It's bad timing for VR game of my son team.

btw: here is useful map of current Coronavirus worldwide state.
UK news is mostly covering it as international or holiday travel-related though a few cases here.

Starting to see interest in scalability of remote access for home working. The normal model of 10-20% users using a remote access service at any one time may have to be adjusted for this.
Here in Switzerland we have first reports.
I think scientists are right, that there is no possibility to stop the virus anymore. On the other hand, I guess we are lucky, because the number of serious cases should be in the range of a severe flu.
As I can work from home, I hope to be able to shift from 1 to 2-3 days a week...
I am not one for conspiracy theories, but did anyone from the UK notice that the most recent person, in the UK news yesterday, to catch the CoronaVirus, went into the GP surgery in Haslemere, Surrey? (Apparently, as I understand it, he has not been abroad recently so means of contact seems currently to be unknown.)

Last year the BBC produced a program 'Contagion!' about an experiment to show how a flu' pandemic would spread from a source.

'Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic creates the first ever life-saving pandemic in an ambitious citizen science experiment for BBC Four, fronted by mathematician Dr Hannah Fry and emergency medic Dr Javid Abdelmoneim.
Whilst Hannah masterminds the experiment and adopts the role of Patient Zero - walking the streets of Haslemere in Surrey to launch the outbreak - Javid finds out why flu is such a danger to society. '
Italy is under huge development of the disease, follow my model they will reach in next 6 days next 600 confirmed cases ( I have limited sources from CSSE for a precise modeling). What is wrong, they have worst mortal rate than in China, when you compare the similar increments.
Also the recovery ratio in Italy is too slow vs China, it could be driven by stronger pneumonia impact of the disease to infected subjects.
From one side general flu has worse impact in worldwide ratio: 1b/y infected and 300-600k deaths. But Corona is stronger than general flu.
Next side:
- actually in China is infected 0.006% of population
- same ratio is in South Korea
- Italy just 0.001% .... for the same China ratio they need 3.5k infected people, but it is too far from the activity curve in the data model.
Still no need to prepare for a pandemic chaos, as some news announced. But stock market is on the slide.
It's bad when people dying, but this isn't doomsday or something like that.
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now I’m thinking, that Slovakia is one of last (2) EU countries out of the Corona virus interest.
Many of us spent time in Italian/Austrian ski resorts frequently with our nature prevention habit (liquids). To be sure, only when night is falling.
Many of Italy workers do they job here (ENEL is finishing Nuclear power plant here). They continuously migrate between Italy and SK. Nothing happens.
I don't understand it, maybe smart brain of Peter Sagan knows, maybe our corrupt politicians who lost Saturday's parliamentary elections.
One of Today’s practical Catch 22 rules for Corona:
You can’t visit Mr. XY in our office, but you can visit him outside, e.g. in coffee bar next to our office. You welcome!
Flu season 2018-2019 statistics from SVK (5.5M population):
- 1 470 680 confirmed
- 157 644 with heavy flu symptoms
- 123 of them was hospitalised due SARI (severe acute respiratory infections)
- 57 deaths (confirmed flu virus contained)
try to compare with whole Corona European data, population- confirmed- deaths.
as Hans Rossling wrote - I’m missing a fact-fullness here. Who needs such panic?
One of Today’s practical Catch 22 rules for Corona:
You can’t visit Mr. XY in our office, but you can visit him outside, e.g. in coffee bar next to our office. You welcome!
I think I can spot the fault in this plan. Good luck to you, your office, the coffee shop and Mr. XY.

As for panic, the ^VIX (CBOE volatility index) is touching 42. The third highest since 1990 to my knowledge.

Stay safe.

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