Italy is under huge development of the disease, follow my model they will reach in next 6 days next 600 confirmed cases ( I have limited sources from CSSE for a precise modeling). What is wrong, they have worst mortal rate than in China, when you compare the similar increments.
Also the recovery ratio in Italy is too slow vs China, it could be driven by stronger pneumonia impact of the disease to infected subjects.
From one side general flu has worse impact in worldwide ratio: 1b/y infected and 300-600k deaths. But Corona is stronger than general flu.
Next side:
- actually in China is infected 0.006% of population
- same ratio is in South Korea
- Italy just 0.001% .... for the same China ratio they need 3.5k infected people, but it is too far from the activity curve in the data model.
Still no need to prepare for a pandemic chaos, as some news announced. But stock market is on the slide.
It's bad when people dying, but this isn't doomsday or something like that.