Coronavirus impact

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Coronavirus impact

jeyare

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still in my watching radar:
- as you know Italy impact is out of any other progress
- seems to be daily increment of infected people (excl. deaths and recovery) is on slow decrease
- most affected region (Lombardy) from yesterday (March 10th) is first time in decrease progress (great for them)
- because many of sources provide different approach to "clear data", there is also for your imagination some point of view to - hospitalized people + how many of them are under Intensive care
- there is also included South Korea line for a comparison

Source of data - GitHub

Italy-COVID-19.png
 

jeyare

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Attached is PDf export from my PowerBI, when you like better resolution
 

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Weekly trip for groceries this morning (location... U.S) ... hand sanitizer and disinfecting wipes were sold out... a few rolls of toilet paper remain... but milk is in good supply!

Otherwise, the shelves looked full.

Outside, road traffic appears unaffected. Gasoline at 1.85 (USD) per gallon.

I'm weary of all the news reports... when can we get back to arguing about climate change?
 
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I'm in MI and there are (2) confirmed cases on the east side of the state - a company in the town I live is sending an employee in for testing...
 
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My .02 - Here in the states the flu is more of an issue than Coronavirus.....
This may be true for the current numbers in most places. But just a few weeks ago Italy had no cases at all. Now they're being hit harder than any yearly influenza hits that region.

We're still in the early stages here in the states.

The issue with this one is its relatively long incubation period where people are asymptomatic and contagious. Allowing for infection rates to grow exponentially in the time where people don't realize they're a conduit.

It will be interesting to see how things progress and even more so if it re-emerges in fall/winter months.

I'm over near "ground zero" for the US and while I'm not worried about it personally, I definitely understand people of higher age and those with pre-existing conditions who are. I also appreciate some of the measures businesses and local gov are taking to avoid the spread en masse.

On a side note, traffic is lower than I've seen in the area in 20+ years and I'm absolutely loving it.
 
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jeyare

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problem of the virus growing similar to COVID-19 is:
- responsibility each of us
- testing, testing, testing (South Korea effort is the way)
 

jeyare

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Taiwan and Singapore are excellent models... and then there is Micronesia!
OFC
but I have in my radar countries with heavy increments (day to day) and their trend
 

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Info I found useful at the link below...forwarded to me by my son, seems to have good info about public health actions to reduce transmission rates. Some of the stats on coronavirus cases is US-centric, but the overall information and personal actions redcommended can work for anyone/anywhere. Hope you find it useful, if so, please pass it on to others.

 

jeyare

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problem of the Lombardy (IT) is heavy ratio of Day to Day increment, then they have 50% of the infected population from rest of 19 regions
Info I found useful at the link below...forwarded to me by my son, seems to have good info about public health actions to reduce transmission rates. Some of the stats on coronavirus cases is US-centric, but the overall information and personal actions redcommended can work for anyone/anywhere. Hope you find it useful, if so, please pass it on to others.

thx for such source, I like data
but problem of the data interpretation in such case is mostly based on:

- deep dive outlook - e.g. w/o knowledge of Diamond Princes passengers age (seems to be more important) and their health conditions we can't precisely propagate infected or mortality data of such closed community ( 4,061 passengers and crew)

- data source accuracy - as was seen in Europe, whole medical system hasn't been prepared for the tests of COVID-19 infections (what is base of accuracy for the identified infections), then till now we don't know how many people have been infected = real impact for the data science behind, e.g. for the mortality rate

- objective comparison - most of news portal "analytics" tried compare data in wrong way (and from different sources, frequently):
a) total confirmed infection number between two and more countries -it's wrong approach - because there is heavy difference between currently infected (better number for the analyze) and total confirmed infection number (incl. recovered + deaths). It's like compare total revenue of company only w/o another more important indicators.

b) two different countries with different area size (km2) instead country specific regions (similar area size, density, ...). This is another wrong example of the disease monitoring. But they do that.

c) reason of the increments (positive or negative) - we don't have detailed information what kind of scenario change some dramatic increments (more testing, more precise testing, in-house testing, more ...), then we can't compare data samples before and after, because then we get inaccurate outcome.

to be sure this consideration isn't about detracting of the situation. Just be ready to read the objective information from such information mess.
 
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jeyare

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jeyare

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Italy - different point of view through Day to Day increment in last 7 days (March 7th - 13th). As you can see you from the chart:
- 4 IT regions keep 80% of infected value (Pareto rule is also here)
- Lombardy (52% of total IT active infected) is on descent way .... median for last 7 day is still high 23%
- Emilia Romagna (13% of total IT active infected) is on flat trend but still with better median 14%
- Veneto (10% of total IT active infected) is on flat trend but still with similar median 13% as in Emilua Romagna
- Piemonte (5% of total IT active infected) is on flat trend but from median point of view is decreasing (29%)
all of the regions are neighbor

1584190355424.png


vs
Total (country) daily increment = you can't see more details here, because you can't define where is the "positive" activity point

1584190503412.png
 

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